* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 06/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 40 45 51 53 54 52 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 40 45 51 53 54 52 50 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 16 10 16 18 11 1 6 7 14 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 5 6 6 0 1 -3 -5 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 339 345 352 330 302 309 333 8 217 261 239 250 220 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.0 28.1 27.8 26.9 27.2 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 157 158 160 164 156 146 143 133 136 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 69 68 67 67 70 68 59 58 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 7 16 16 4 -1 4 15 26 43 54 55 200 MB DIV 109 108 101 134 153 88 88 91 135 141 70 49 42 700-850 TADV -12 -15 -20 -14 -14 -17 -16 -12 -2 -4 0 5 10 LAND (KM) 1027 1023 1057 1105 1149 1304 1381 1467 1570 1669 1803 1914 2020 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.4 12.3 13.1 13.8 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.9 108.3 109.6 111.0 113.9 116.8 119.3 121.7 123.7 125.7 127.5 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 11 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 38 42 53 33 25 17 11 10 3 4 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 20. 26. 28. 29. 27. 25. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 105.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 06/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.81 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.35 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.2% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 23.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 47.6% 24.3% 16.7% 4.3% 17.6% 15.3% 21.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 21.2% 20.4% 4.9% 0.2% 3.6% 3.4% 2.7% Consensus: 2.4% 32.3% 22.8% 7.2% 1.5% 14.4% 13.9% 8.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 06/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##