* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 06/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 29 38 45 59 75 83 87 88 83 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 29 38 45 59 75 83 87 88 83 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 29 33 40 48 55 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 9 12 11 10 9 7 10 6 2 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 4 0 0 7 0 -4 -3 -3 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 281 328 350 29 31 304 285 35 64 84 129 227 238 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.6 29.3 28.6 28.6 27.3 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 156 158 158 162 158 151 150 136 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -51.7 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 77 75 73 74 72 73 73 71 66 62 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 13 13 13 15 16 20 25 26 28 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 48 38 36 32 31 31 12 7 17 17 36 47 44 200 MB DIV 92 101 118 114 111 125 139 137 153 137 125 50 47 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -7 -6 -4 -1 -2 0 4 LAND (KM) 1120 1167 1201 1239 1274 1356 1468 1508 1515 1553 1561 1606 1685 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.5 10.2 11.1 12.3 13.3 14.3 15.1 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.4 107.7 109.0 110.1 112.4 114.8 117.0 119.0 120.7 122.2 123.7 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 12 12 12 11 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 37 46 50 28 24 23 18 17 5 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 19. 21. 23. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 18. 25. 39. 55. 63. 67. 68. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.0 105.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 06/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 37.4% 19.4% 12.4% 1.4% 30.1% 38.0% 38.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 3.5% Consensus: 1.5% 12.9% 7.3% 4.3% 0.5% 10.1% 12.9% 13.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 06/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##