* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 06/29/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 22 26 30 36 43 48 54 57 55 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 22 26 30 36 43 48 54 57 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 21 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 15 19 19 14 19 13 2 5 0 1 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 3 0 2 6 1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 281 303 334 358 17 345 315 318 286 135 44 5 242 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.5 29.4 29.5 28.8 28.4 28.5 27.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 155 161 160 161 153 148 148 135 123 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.7 -51.8 -52.6 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 72 74 71 72 71 69 68 67 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 48 41 33 30 28 15 0 4 14 34 45 50 200 MB DIV 81 95 102 118 123 106 141 122 159 121 148 94 67 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -11 -9 -10 -12 -12 -12 -5 -3 -1 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1037 1095 1147 1166 1176 1240 1313 1419 1418 1468 1507 1525 1537 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.7 9.4 10.2 11.1 12.2 13.0 13.8 14.4 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.9 104.2 105.6 106.9 108.0 110.3 112.7 115.1 117.3 119.2 120.7 121.8 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 12 11 12 13 13 11 9 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 33 33 36 39 46 26 22 16 13 14 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 16. 23. 28. 34. 37. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.9 102.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 06/29/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 8.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.2% 3.2% 9.4% 19.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% Consensus: 0.2% 2.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 3.1% 6.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 06/29/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##