* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 06/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 18 22 29 35 42 48 52 56 58 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 18 22 29 35 42 48 52 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 14 16 17 15 17 14 10 3 2 1 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 6 5 4 1 0 6 2 2 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 266 280 298 322 349 18 334 307 299 321 244 145 170 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.4 28.7 28.8 28.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 156 156 155 158 159 161 160 152 153 145 133 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 74 73 75 74 73 71 71 70 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 40 44 39 39 33 24 12 6 12 17 40 45 200 MB DIV 62 57 91 109 129 99 116 156 176 162 132 161 114 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -8 -12 -12 -10 -10 -8 -11 -11 -8 0 2 LAND (KM) 986 1051 1114 1172 1195 1258 1327 1422 1497 1538 1601 1635 1676 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 8.1 8.7 9.4 10.2 11.0 11.9 12.8 13.6 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 101.7 103.0 104.4 105.7 107.1 109.5 111.8 114.2 116.6 118.8 120.8 122.4 123.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 11 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 42 34 34 35 50 30 24 23 22 21 16 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 15. 22. 28. 32. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.9 101.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 06/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 7.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.1% 2.2% 8.0% 22.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% Consensus: 0.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 2.7% 7.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 06/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##