* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 11/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 32 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 32 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 25 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 14 22 25 26 28 31 35 30 35 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 2 2 0 1 2 0 4 0 7 11 SHEAR DIR 245 240 256 256 261 272 266 243 236 243 250 252 233 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.5 27.7 27.1 27.3 27.4 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 153 150 149 150 147 139 133 134 135 143 141 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.8 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 64 61 56 54 51 50 46 42 38 34 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 14 14 15 18 16 15 12 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 31 35 25 23 13 4 23 -14 -11 -36 -10 200 MB DIV 152 131 87 89 75 45 31 44 -17 -2 -2 0 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 2 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 846 780 714 656 598 514 408 330 250 190 180 246 262 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 23 21 21 23 23 16 11 13 15 19 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 17. 24. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -6. -14. -22. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 6. 5. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 7. 5. -2. -9. -16. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 110.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 11/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.20 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.2% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 7.4% 4.4% 2.5% 0.4% 1.4% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 10.5% 8.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 11/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX