* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 11/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 39 36 33 29 24 23 21 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 39 36 33 29 24 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 12 13 16 21 20 28 28 21 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 4 4 -1 4 1 -3 -1 0 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 230 260 272 270 239 280 264 249 219 216 216 240 253 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 151 152 150 151 146 150 149 149 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 -53.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 5 9 6 10 700-500 MB RH 75 67 66 63 60 59 63 62 59 58 49 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 13 13 15 15 13 11 10 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 21 22 22 26 25 5 -5 -6 -17 -18 -21 -9 -20 200 MB DIV 171 157 142 111 107 67 64 30 -6 -22 -11 -22 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 861 823 799 769 738 663 556 396 243 143 92 59 44 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.8 15.6 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 110.4 110.3 110.0 109.7 108.6 107.2 105.8 104.8 104.2 104.1 104.3 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 3 4 6 8 7 6 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 29 26 26 25 22 20 18 29 30 26 21 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -5. -11. -14. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. -3. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 14. 11. 8. 4. -1. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 110.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 11/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.90 7.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 36.5% 26.7% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 21.6% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 33.7% 23.8% 16.6% 4.1% 18.2% 9.6% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.2% 5.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.9% 25.8% 18.8% 6.0% 1.4% 13.2% 10.6% 2.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 11/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX