* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 11/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 43 46 43 42 37 31 28 26 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 43 46 43 42 37 31 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 30 28 25 23 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 6 9 9 18 22 24 30 30 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 2 2 3 3 -5 -1 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 300 298 304 306 294 291 288 264 235 221 216 224 235 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 29.0 28.4 27.5 27.0 27.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 150 150 151 150 153 147 137 131 130 136 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 76 70 68 65 58 61 60 56 50 45 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 13 13 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 19 21 25 24 15 9 12 9 15 2 7 -13 200 MB DIV 124 174 176 156 134 110 58 61 60 19 -11 -4 -35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 1 2 5 2 2 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 980 955 924 878 832 728 611 468 316 230 206 222 251 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.7 16.9 18.0 18.9 19.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.1 110.9 110.6 110.2 109.2 108.2 107.2 106.5 106.6 107.0 107.4 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 4 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 48 46 45 38 33 25 21 22 22 13 9 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 20.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 18. 17. 12. 6. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 111.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 11/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 9.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.75 8.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.38 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 152.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.98 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 42.3% 34.8% 0.0% 0.0% 34.8% 36.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 31.1% 23.7% 15.1% 2.6% 38.2% 40.0% 10.5% Bayesian: 2.0% 22.4% 15.7% 5.4% 0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 4.1% Consensus: 2.7% 31.9% 24.7% 6.9% 1.1% 24.9% 25.5% 4.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 11/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX