* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 11/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 45 58 65 69 69 63 54 45 41 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 45 58 65 69 69 63 54 45 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 43 50 53 52 46 37 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 8 7 8 11 18 18 25 28 30 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -3 -5 -3 0 4 3 -3 -2 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 44 39 20 18 15 4 316 303 281 258 238 240 249 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 150 150 148 147 146 145 147 149 154 156 156 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 78 72 66 63 65 70 66 58 54 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 12 13 15 16 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 14 20 23 28 17 9 19 17 24 15 43 200 MB DIV 119 118 148 187 184 137 128 83 68 99 23 5 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 3 3 7 7 3 4 LAND (KM) 1127 1131 1120 1080 1042 955 860 756 598 410 247 68 -38 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.8 14.9 16.1 17.8 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 111.8 112.0 111.8 111.5 110.5 109.1 107.8 106.4 104.9 104.0 103.7 103.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 7 9 9 8 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 37 40 42 46 23 14 22 20 25 21 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 6. 9. 12. 10. 6. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 8. 4. 1. -2. -3. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 33. 40. 44. 44. 38. 29. 20. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 111.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 11/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 151.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.97 7.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -4.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 34.6% 28.8% 0.0% 0.0% 34.7% 49.7% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 22.9% 15.3% 8.6% 4.6% 32.1% 76.1% 35.6% Bayesian: 6.2% 44.3% 33.9% 11.8% 1.8% 3.3% 2.1% 22.0% Consensus: 3.2% 33.9% 26.0% 6.8% 2.1% 23.4% 42.7% 19.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 11/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX