* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 09/19/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 25 26 29 35 39 40 41 42 47 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 12 18 23 22 22 25 21 25 24 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -3 -2 0 5 4 4 0 -2 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 277 228 205 217 224 237 253 243 237 229 249 255 264 SST (C) 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.8 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 167 168 167 163 159 159 160 164 165 168 168 168 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 7 8 10 7 10 7 11 7 11 8 700-500 MB RH 75 72 69 64 63 56 55 54 52 49 48 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 6 5 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 42 60 77 73 43 43 44 52 31 30 13 18 200 MB DIV 40 39 66 80 56 28 20 -5 15 2 -15 -10 4 700-850 TADV 3 2 6 7 6 14 8 0 9 4 5 1 2 LAND (KM) -2 63 -22 -123 -218 -388 -489 -435 -343 -274 -214 -176 -116 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 27.2 28.2 29.1 29.8 30.2 29.7 28.9 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.2 111.0 110.5 109.7 107.5 105.9 105.8 106.3 107.0 107.6 108.3 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 10 10 10 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 37 35 35 36 18 13 12 15 17 22 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. 0. 7. 16. 25. 31. 36. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -3. -11. -19. -24. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 10. 14. 15. 16. 17. 22. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.8 111.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 09/19/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.39 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.28 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.4% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 09/19/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX