* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 09/19/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 47 50 55 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 23 24 28 29 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 24 27 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 4 7 16 17 18 15 13 10 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -5 -3 -2 5 2 -2 -3 -5 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 3 3 330 181 176 232 236 265 254 261 244 252 233 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.5 30.4 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.4 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 160 164 170 169 163 161 160 162 162 167 169 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 9 8 10 7 11 8 13 10 12 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 72 70 64 60 59 59 58 53 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 25 30 38 65 68 43 45 46 62 25 19 3 200 MB DIV 56 68 61 50 67 84 35 27 0 6 -11 -9 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 9 12 12 6 -3 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 17 -10 -7 18 41 -127 -357 -458 -481 -438 -401 -319 -241 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.6 29.4 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.6 27.2 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 110.8 111.0 111.0 110.7 109.5 107.3 105.5 104.8 104.8 105.2 105.9 106.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 10 10 6 3 3 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 16 31 36 35 33 12 14 12 14 15 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 7. 16. 25. 31. 36. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -2. -5. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 22. 25. 30. 35. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.2 110.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 09/19/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.86 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.22 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.0% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.8% 4.4% 1.2% 0.7% 3.8% 2.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 9.6% 9.2% 0.4% 0.2% 7.8% 7.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 09/19/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX