* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 09/18/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 31 36 37 40 43 46 50 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 24 25 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 25 25 26 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 2 5 13 24 22 22 22 19 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -6 -3 -2 2 -2 1 -3 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 4 71 121 187 194 211 234 237 238 236 243 213 240 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.4 30.5 30.3 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.8 31.0 31.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 157 156 158 170 168 163 161 165 169 168 168 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 74 74 75 74 70 64 59 53 54 50 47 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 1 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 32 33 31 43 76 51 38 46 58 39 27 6 200 MB DIV 22 55 62 67 56 63 33 5 5 7 -4 -3 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 2 14 8 7 3 6 7 7 2 LAND (KM) 15 14 -25 -30 4 0 -171 -332 -339 -274 -185 -132 -85 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.3 27.8 28.8 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.6 111.0 111.3 111.4 110.6 109.1 107.3 106.7 107.0 107.9 108.6 109.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 5 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 21 23 28 27 36 20 16 15 18 28 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 8. 16. 25. 31. 36. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. -4. -9. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 12. 15. 18. 21. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.8 110.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 09/18/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 09/18/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX