* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 09/18/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 46 46 45 45 47 46 V (KT) LAND 25 23 26 24 25 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 27 25 25 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 1 5 11 16 29 32 31 31 33 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -2 -4 -2 -2 2 1 1 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 307 305 359 214 245 218 231 230 243 237 238 241 236 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 29.7 29.1 29.0 30.0 30.3 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 162 156 154 164 167 163 159 162 164 164 163 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 6 5 8 7 9 6 9 7 9 6 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 73 72 67 62 54 49 49 44 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 26 36 41 35 66 79 43 25 25 20 14 31 200 MB DIV 6 20 50 72 65 65 60 19 14 -8 -4 -8 -7 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -5 -5 -1 8 7 2 0 4 17 6 8 LAND (KM) 51 -17 2 -30 -34 51 -89 -204 -242 -228 -160 -117 -82 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.2 26.1 27.7 28.8 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.2 110.7 111.3 111.7 111.5 110.5 109.4 108.8 109.0 109.9 111.0 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 7 7 5 0 3 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 14 22 21 28 36 35 35 35 35 32 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 8. 16. 25. 31. 35. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. -1. -10. -19. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 21. 21. 20. 20. 22. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.6 109.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 09/18/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.73 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.04 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.9% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.4% 8.6% 6.0% 0.3% 0.2% 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 09/18/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX