* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 38 42 45 48 49 49 47 46 40 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 38 42 45 48 49 49 47 46 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 39 40 41 42 41 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 17 17 13 12 9 13 19 16 12 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -2 -4 -4 -2 -3 -1 -8 -3 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 357 3 19 27 34 31 50 28 46 51 29 28 39 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.4 26.5 27.2 27.5 26.4 24.6 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 138 134 134 130 123 127 136 140 129 110 93 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 68 64 63 62 62 61 59 60 55 62 72 73 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 15 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 -2 7 21 22 18 20 -6 0 49 63 52 200 MB DIV 66 55 16 -16 -6 -19 -17 -10 -12 26 37 8 5 700-850 TADV -16 -15 -10 -8 -4 -9 -5 -6 -6 -7 -1 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1638 1707 1786 1859 1917 2031 2049 1973 1823 1568 1268 1009 754 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.5 18.2 20.5 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.5 125.4 126.3 127.0 128.2 128.7 128.1 126.7 124.5 122.3 121.0 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 4 2 5 10 13 13 13 18 HEAT CONTENT 14 18 23 27 22 11 9 11 20 10 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 16. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 123.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 14.0% 13.8% 9.1% 5.8% 11.6% 13.1% 7.6% Logistic: 1.6% 7.9% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.4% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 7.7% 5.4% 3.5% 2.2% 4.3% 4.8% 3.7% DTOPS: 5.0% 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX