* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 40 48 52 52 51 50 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 40 48 52 52 51 50 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 39 42 43 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 13 13 11 4 7 9 14 19 15 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 1 0 -2 -4 -2 2 -5 -4 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 3 354 6 22 35 51 66 83 57 49 40 34 29 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 26.6 25.9 25.2 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 137 134 135 132 136 141 132 124 117 94 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 62 61 61 59 62 60 68 73 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 15 15 17 15 15 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 11 4 0 18 37 27 21 1 18 76 51 39 200 MB DIV 72 62 57 23 -9 -25 -36 -20 -29 33 26 4 3 700-850 TADV -14 -16 -14 -10 -6 -5 -9 -6 -6 -7 -1 -1 -19 LAND (KM) 1547 1598 1685 1781 1877 2011 2059 1947 1710 1392 1055 744 438 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.1 14.9 14.6 14.0 13.8 14.2 15.2 16.9 19.0 21.6 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.6 124.7 125.7 126.6 127.7 128.1 127.1 125.1 122.7 120.4 118.7 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 8 5 2 8 13 15 15 15 19 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 19 26 26 16 13 22 21 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 1. 0. -2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 15. 23. 27. 27. 26. 25. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 122.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.41 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 4.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.2% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 4.1% 0.3% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX