* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 41 44 48 54 56 55 53 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 41 44 48 54 56 55 53 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 33 35 35 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 6 7 9 2 2 6 5 15 15 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 6 4 1 -1 1 -1 0 -2 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 4 2 352 354 5 92 303 113 93 79 67 65 38 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.2 26.4 26.4 25.7 25.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 141 141 141 135 130 122 125 127 119 112 108 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 61 61 57 57 58 61 61 65 66 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -1 5 5 1 4 36 44 45 50 36 75 127 86 200 MB DIV 63 69 33 24 14 -8 -22 -18 -26 -2 16 26 5 700-850 TADV -9 -14 -9 -8 -7 -1 -6 -4 -2 4 2 3 1 LAND (KM) 1489 1485 1524 1583 1654 1794 1904 1922 1851 1719 1542 1358 1145 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.6 16.3 17.3 18.5 19.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.6 122.5 123.5 124.5 126.2 127.6 128.2 128.0 127.3 126.2 125.1 123.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 10 9 7 5 3 5 8 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 11 13 17 24 15 11 11 7 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 16. 19. 23. 29. 31. 30. 28. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 121.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.6% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 22.4% 8.7% 5.1% 1.1% 7.2% 2.8% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 14.0% 8.4% 1.7% 0.4% 7.4% 6.4% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX