* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 44 49 54 60 63 61 61 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 44 49 54 60 63 61 61 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 28 30 31 33 35 35 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 5 4 5 2 3 5 4 9 9 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 6 6 1 -1 0 0 1 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 356 6 4 9 352 8 285 23 169 98 84 66 67 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.8 27.1 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.7 25.7 25.0 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 136 130 132 134 130 131 127 128 120 113 109 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 64 61 57 55 54 58 59 61 63 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 17 17 18 20 20 18 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -7 -1 -2 7 20 42 38 52 48 37 61 100 200 MB DIV 61 43 52 47 26 9 -11 -26 -1 -11 -11 17 27 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -12 -8 -5 -1 -2 -7 -4 -6 -4 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1407 1381 1396 1425 1475 1619 1761 1867 1911 1880 1718 1519 1320 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.6 17.5 18.8 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.0 120.8 121.7 122.6 124.6 126.4 128.0 128.8 128.7 127.5 126.2 124.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 2 5 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 8 7 9 15 15 10 7 7 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 10. 11. 8. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 19. 24. 29. 35. 38. 36. 36. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 119.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.4% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 24.4% 10.0% 6.4% 0.9% 7.3% 2.3% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 14.7% 8.9% 2.1% 0.3% 7.3% 6.3% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX