* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 47 55 62 67 72 69 67 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 47 55 62 67 72 69 67 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 45 46 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 19 15 8 9 3 6 3 2 7 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -1 3 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 1 357 4 10 13 24 33 356 25 1 61 38 62 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.1 24.6 24.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 140 142 141 140 133 131 129 122 108 107 100 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 70 69 65 59 56 56 59 59 60 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 15 16 17 19 20 21 23 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 -4 -3 -5 4 33 37 49 52 46 94 140 200 MB DIV 84 85 70 78 69 29 14 -21 -4 0 16 -13 13 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -9 -12 -12 -7 -1 -5 -1 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1563 1592 1625 1640 1657 1746 1810 1849 1809 1735 1626 1491 1384 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.5 15.0 16.1 17.1 18.3 19.6 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.2 122.0 122.6 123.2 124.6 125.7 126.6 127.2 127.3 127.1 126.6 126.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 16 20 25 23 12 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 26. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 12. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 22. 30. 37. 42. 47. 44. 42. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 120.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.1% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 9.4% 2.5% 1.4% 0.3% 5.0% 15.7% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 9.9% 6.4% 0.5% 0.1% 6.7% 10.9% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX