* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 39 44 51 55 58 62 61 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 39 44 51 55 58 62 61 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 29 31 34 36 37 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 17 20 21 11 10 4 10 4 9 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 -2 -4 0 -3 -2 0 0 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 11 354 355 9 20 11 19 2 347 355 40 55 61 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 136 140 141 140 137 133 130 125 119 116 108 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 71 69 66 60 56 56 59 60 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 16 16 16 17 18 19 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 17 10 6 -2 -1 -2 13 30 31 50 52 102 140 200 MB DIV 67 89 98 82 82 47 4 13 3 26 8 14 -15 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -11 -10 -14 -8 -4 -3 -6 1 6 8 -3 LAND (KM) 1550 1594 1632 1650 1679 1725 1777 1803 1815 1761 1682 1519 1336 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.3 18.6 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.7 121.4 122.1 122.8 123.9 124.9 125.7 126.6 127.0 126.8 126.0 125.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 6 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 11 12 15 18 20 26 20 9 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 13. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 26. 30. 33. 37. 36. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 120.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.09 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 8.4% 7.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 5.3% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.1% 7.3% 2.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX