* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 29 32 37 41 46 54 58 65 63 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 29 32 37 41 46 54 58 65 63 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 13 16 18 10 12 7 8 6 7 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 1 1 -1 0 -4 -4 -4 -1 1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 15 15 354 357 13 24 22 44 344 14 24 30 24 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.5 25.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 140 142 141 136 132 133 132 127 113 111 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 70 70 68 62 56 56 53 57 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 15 16 17 17 20 20 23 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 13 9 6 4 6 26 32 35 48 52 78 200 MB DIV 50 58 79 90 85 78 13 0 15 29 30 19 -13 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -9 -12 -11 -11 -3 -1 -4 -4 3 10 1 LAND (KM) 1487 1535 1562 1596 1637 1685 1793 1866 1922 1885 1804 1665 1458 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.7 16.7 17.8 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.9 120.6 121.4 122.3 123.7 125.2 126.3 127.3 127.8 127.8 127.1 126.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 11 13 17 22 24 16 11 8 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 10. 15. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 21. 29. 33. 40. 38. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 119.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.15 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.1% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.5% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX