* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 30 33 41 47 53 60 67 71 74 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 30 33 41 47 53 60 67 71 74 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 48 52 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 17 17 11 18 12 12 8 8 6 11 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -3 0 -1 -3 -6 -5 -6 -6 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 29 22 14 23 22 13 32 16 354 359 43 58 79 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.8 26.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 140 140 141 141 139 136 135 135 131 124 120 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -53.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.4 -51.5 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 70 70 71 71 67 61 56 53 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 13 13 17 18 18 20 23 24 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 17 13 8 4 0 2 23 33 41 55 78 200 MB DIV 52 57 63 60 61 91 69 30 31 42 47 -1 29 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -10 -11 -11 -11 -8 -5 -2 -2 -2 0 3 LAND (KM) 1390 1427 1480 1538 1591 1711 1823 1933 1975 1975 1914 1826 1755 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.4 13.7 14.4 15.7 17.1 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.6 119.6 120.6 121.6 123.6 125.1 126.2 127.0 127.6 128.2 128.5 128.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 6 4 4 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 11 12 23 24 19 18 15 10 8 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 7. 7. 9. 12. 18. 19. 23. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 8. 16. 22. 28. 35. 42. 46. 49. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 117.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.30 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.8% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 3.1% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4.2% 5.9% 1.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 28.0% 12.0% 5.0% 1.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX