* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 34 40 48 52 61 67 69 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 34 40 48 52 61 67 69 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 34 38 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 18 20 17 16 5 13 4 7 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -6 -5 0 -2 1 -9 -3 -2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 27 20 14 19 21 8 18 357 7 20 59 95 67 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.2 26.2 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 141 141 140 141 138 137 139 135 124 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.2 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 74 73 72 71 69 64 61 56 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 13 14 14 17 18 17 21 23 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 24 15 17 10 6 10 14 38 41 66 83 200 MB DIV 35 49 67 69 80 101 64 48 9 8 -5 -16 -27 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -8 -12 -12 -10 -6 -3 -3 -4 2 4 LAND (KM) 1345 1372 1418 1454 1495 1599 1690 1786 1847 1833 1804 1722 1649 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.5 13.6 14.3 15.4 16.8 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.3 118.2 119.0 119.8 121.6 123.2 124.4 125.3 125.8 126.4 126.8 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 4 5 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 11 11 12 21 25 23 26 23 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 9. 15. 17. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 23. 27. 36. 42. 44. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 116.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.19 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.91 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.8% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 5.2% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX