* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 31 36 42 50 60 64 69 74 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 31 36 42 50 60 64 69 74 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 37 40 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 18 20 15 14 10 6 1 3 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -2 -5 2 1 -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 33 28 24 20 27 4 7 51 350 322 322 72 37 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.9 27.5 27.7 26.8 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 141 144 140 139 142 138 140 131 126 124 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 74 73 73 71 65 59 54 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 16 19 20 22 23 26 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 14 11 14 18 14 16 8 1 9 35 47 57 63 200 MB DIV 36 42 59 81 84 112 91 56 -1 2 31 33 13 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -6 -7 -9 -13 -9 -4 -3 -1 -6 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1368 1413 1441 1467 1483 1512 1565 1592 1630 1696 1783 1829 1781 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.5 117.2 117.8 118.5 119.7 121.2 122.4 123.6 125.1 126.6 127.7 127.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 8 8 7 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 14 16 12 11 14 18 24 17 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 17. 21. 24. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 25. 35. 39. 44. 49. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 115.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.9% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.7% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 8.0% 13.0% 54.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX