* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 43 50 55 57 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 43 50 55 57 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 32 34 37 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 11 12 21 15 19 9 5 11 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 -6 -4 -3 1 4 7 SHEAR DIR 40 36 41 47 32 24 15 28 41 103 160 133 100 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 146 143 139 135 137 138 139 140 133 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 77 77 75 74 71 69 64 64 61 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 21 11 9 18 23 5 0 -6 0 4 36 53 154 200 MB DIV 40 16 26 41 62 50 64 43 24 -31 -33 -19 29 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -6 -5 -5 -7 -10 -8 -3 -2 -1 -1 6 LAND (KM) 1255 1299 1345 1390 1449 1556 1645 1703 1719 1714 1618 1467 1290 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.4 14.3 15.8 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.0 117.0 117.9 118.8 120.3 121.6 122.5 123.0 123.3 123.0 122.6 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 2 3 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 16 19 21 13 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 25. 30. 32. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 115.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.39 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.1% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.1% 1.7% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.8% 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 3.8% 4.8% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX