* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 55 60 66 67 72 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 55 60 66 67 72 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 45 47 48 51 56 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 16 21 21 19 12 15 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 46 45 52 71 65 33 35 29 48 73 108 65 69 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 145 146 140 136 133 133 133 134 139 135 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.5 -52.7 -52.6 -51.9 -51.7 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 75 77 75 77 78 77 74 71 67 62 62 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 15 17 18 17 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 22 29 24 23 26 9 9 2 -4 8 28 107 135 200 MB DIV 54 41 31 47 59 57 63 44 23 -17 -2 3 43 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -4 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -2 2 2 11 LAND (KM) 1178 1220 1286 1361 1444 1617 1731 1801 1758 1657 1473 1267 1064 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.2 12.8 12.3 11.8 12.0 12.7 14.1 15.9 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.6 116.8 118.0 119.1 121.0 122.1 122.5 122.1 121.5 120.6 119.9 119.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 8 5 0 4 6 9 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 9 10 10 15 16 15 10 10 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 30. 35. 41. 42. 47. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 114.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.3% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 12.6% 4.7% 2.2% 1.3% 3.7% 9.0% 12.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 0.8% 11.3% 5.6% 0.8% 0.4% 5.7% 7.9% 4.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX