* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 45 53 60 67 73 74 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 45 53 60 67 73 74 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 8 9 11 16 13 18 11 8 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -4 -6 -3 -4 -2 -7 -6 -3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 56 63 47 52 51 47 27 13 28 43 17 234 264 SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.9 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 147 147 146 145 141 133 132 134 137 143 133 130 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -52.5 -51.7 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 78 76 78 76 75 70 69 63 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 19 21 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 19 19 19 10 9 14 4 -2 -9 1 14 57 78 200 MB DIV 34 40 35 23 20 42 17 46 33 23 -18 5 -2 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -7 -5 -4 -5 -8 -8 -6 -2 -2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1154 1188 1244 1320 1388 1550 1700 1789 1786 1714 1614 1521 1489 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.7 12.3 11.8 11.9 12.7 14.0 15.7 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.5 115.7 116.9 118.0 120.0 121.6 122.3 122.4 122.4 122.6 123.2 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 11 10 9 6 3 3 5 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 11 10 10 11 13 16 16 15 12 13 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 20. 28. 35. 42. 48. 49. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 113.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.2% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 9.7% 3.6% 1.6% 1.0% 4.3% 6.1% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 9.5% 4.8% 0.6% 0.3% 5.7% 6.8% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX