* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 08/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 47 55 62 70 72 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 47 55 62 70 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 34 37 41 45 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 7 8 10 14 14 16 16 8 0 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -3 -4 -6 -3 -2 -6 -7 -6 1 1 SHEAR DIR 54 56 64 47 50 58 26 27 15 36 11 42 281 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.8 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 147 147 146 143 136 132 131 134 141 136 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.7 -52.7 -52.8 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 76 78 77 77 75 72 70 66 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 15 18 21 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 18 18 9 13 5 0 -6 -7 5 35 64 200 MB DIV 46 34 40 35 24 41 17 36 36 33 -6 -1 -17 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -7 -5 -4 -5 -7 -6 -3 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1079 1154 1199 1254 1324 1456 1618 1737 1773 1734 1652 1561 1510 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.5 12.1 11.9 12.4 13.4 15.0 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.5 114.5 115.7 116.8 118.9 120.7 121.9 122.2 122.3 122.4 123.0 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 9 8 4 1 3 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 16 11 11 10 11 11 14 16 16 13 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 18. 25. 30. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 27. 35. 42. 50. 52. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 112.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.0% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 4.6% 6.6% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 2.2% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX