* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 06/24/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 50 55 57 57 56 56 56 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 50 55 57 57 56 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 26 27 29 29 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 16 14 14 14 16 18 26 28 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 1 -6 -7 -9 -5 SHEAR DIR 42 52 69 80 86 83 90 100 98 108 115 100 86 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.7 29.2 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 148 150 150 153 153 153 148 152 157 153 149 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 72 73 73 76 77 73 70 69 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -29 -38 -36 -27 -15 6 22 34 55 56 51 46 200 MB DIV 64 72 74 90 72 58 61 29 26 30 33 18 36 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 1 3 3 4 1 6 5 5 2 LAND (KM) 608 596 569 560 563 617 682 780 931 1146 1308 1505 1650 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.2 12.5 11.4 10.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 106.7 106.4 105.9 105.6 105.9 106.9 108.7 111.1 113.7 115.8 117.5 118.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 4 3 4 7 11 12 12 10 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 41 39 41 43 54 56 38 39 14 16 32 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 29. 34. 36. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 35. 37. 37. 36. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.8 106.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 06/24/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 06/24/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING