* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 06/24/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 30 39 48 54 57 57 57 56 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 30 39 48 54 57 57 57 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 29 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 12 15 13 13 13 17 19 27 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -7 -5 -10 SHEAR DIR 39 42 50 68 80 82 85 94 104 117 117 114 99 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.8 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 146 146 147 150 152 152 149 149 153 152 149 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.1 -55.0 -54.3 -55.0 -54.5 -55.1 -54.6 -55.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 72 73 74 73 78 75 70 68 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -23 -25 -34 -31 -20 -7 15 21 38 57 47 44 200 MB DIV 45 61 72 72 81 55 63 54 30 25 40 19 25 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 2 3 2 0 7 5 6 4 LAND (KM) 597 587 553 535 522 559 626 709 817 1031 1175 1371 1566 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.4 14.3 13.8 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.5 12.7 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.7 106.6 106.3 105.9 105.7 106.4 107.9 110.0 112.7 115.1 117.3 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 2 3 4 2 5 9 12 13 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 39 33 33 33 42 51 39 33 17 15 15 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 34. 37. 37. 37. 36. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.8 106.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 06/24/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 44.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 06/24/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING