* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942018 06/23/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 43 48 52 54 54 55 54 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 43 48 52 54 54 55 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 31 33 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 14 12 16 17 17 19 20 31 35 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 0 0 0 3 -4 -8 -10 SHEAR DIR 352 7 27 37 38 44 69 99 91 107 105 95 89 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.3 28.9 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 153 149 145 139 145 152 155 151 151 148 147 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.8 -54.3 -55.0 -54.6 -55.2 -54.8 -55.4 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 72 72 70 70 70 69 74 76 78 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 2 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -30 -24 -20 -8 -20 -24 -40 -25 -4 6 27 28 200 MB DIV 55 55 50 45 58 57 58 43 24 31 30 15 8 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 0 2 5 4 5 2 LAND (KM) 616 592 585 565 556 551 585 685 822 1001 1195 1421 1587 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.0 14.6 13.5 12.4 11.2 10.0 8.4 7.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 105.2 106.0 106.5 106.9 107.5 107.4 107.4 108.0 109.1 110.5 111.8 112.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 8 6 5 1 4 6 7 8 10 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 46 37 29 20 27 45 51 36 28 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 23. 28. 32. 34. 34. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.6 104.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 06/23/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 44.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 06/23/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING