* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 11/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 34 35 42 48 59 66 71 86 92 90 85 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 0 5 0 -2 -15 -20 -11 -27 -1 SHEAR DIR 227 242 247 247 245 241 247 243 255 269 290 300 279 SST (C) 26.6 25.7 24.7 23.9 23.3 21.9 20.3 18.1 18.9 16.7 15.9 12.1 9.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 122 111 103 97 83 68 67 68 70 70 70 69 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.4 -55.8 -57.9 -60.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 54 50 47 46 48 50 51 48 48 50 74 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 2 -14 -30 -49 -102 -101 -27 -8 20 37 63 147 200 MB DIV 33 -6 2 -1 25 38 50 43 20 25 9 78 68 700-850 TADV 18 24 18 19 20 17 15 -28 1 61 125 380 212 LAND (KM) 1672 1614 1568 1536 1507 1276 879 349 -236 -846 -881 -731 -469 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 19.0 20.3 21.6 22.9 25.7 28.7 31.6 33.8 36.0 37.6 41.1 46.3 LONG(DEG W) 127.2 127.6 128.1 128.6 129.0 128.7 126.5 121.5 114.4 106.0 95.2 83.5 74.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 15 21 30 34 40 46 47 38 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -17. -35. -62. -91.-115.-125.-128. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 11. 30. 51. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -14. -25. -37. -54. -78.-101.-115.-106. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.8 127.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 11/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 27.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 211.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 11/13/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##