* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 11/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 45 43 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 45 43 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 37 37 36 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 24 28 27 39 50 59 64 68 77 64 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 10 10 5 5 -1 5 3 0 1 -5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 198 210 227 235 233 225 227 235 233 233 248 271 294 SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.2 25.6 24.9 23.6 22.4 21.0 19.3 19.8 19.1 18.2 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 133 125 119 112 99 88 75 66 68 69 70 70 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -55.5 -55.7 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 64 60 58 53 48 48 49 50 45 42 38 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 19 18 16 13 9 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 37 25 15 -11 -48 -113 -47 -16 40 19 123 200 MB DIV 166 117 89 49 43 39 35 48 43 20 25 14 51 700-850 TADV 11 19 19 31 26 17 18 18 -3 -36 17 88 274 LAND (KM) 1842 1841 1812 1779 1727 1637 1462 1079 593 -3 -472 -736 -756 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.3 21.4 24.1 27.1 29.9 31.9 33.9 35.3 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.3 128.8 129.1 129.2 129.6 129.4 127.5 123.3 116.7 109.2 98.6 85.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 12 9 9 10 12 15 20 27 31 38 49 58 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 20 CX,CY: -15/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -24. -40. -58. -75. -82. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. -1. -4. -10. -14. -16. -17. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 10. 24. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 10. 8. 3. -9. -22. -40. -61. -77. -81. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 127.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 11/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 185.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 11/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##