* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 11/12/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 43 40 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 43 40 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 32 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 10 12 18 29 42 50 56 55 59 62 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 7 8 10 10 7 0 3 4 SHEAR DIR 261 255 254 253 230 225 229 224 230 239 230 229 226 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.4 25.9 24.4 23.8 23.3 22.4 21.1 19.5 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 148 146 141 125 108 100 95 87 76 66 67 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.6 -55.1 -55.0 -54.4 -55.3 -54.7 -54.9 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.3 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 71 73 72 70 61 55 53 50 50 56 55 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -7 -5 1 16 18 7 -1 -28 -52 -67 -69 -41 200 MB DIV 125 157 152 143 145 69 81 64 38 36 47 45 13 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 3 9 27 21 16 10 17 9 6 -50 LAND (KM) 1663 1721 1713 1685 1655 1641 1732 1822 1759 1563 1201 719 220 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.2 13.0 14.1 15.5 18.2 19.9 21.2 22.7 24.7 27.3 29.7 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.8 122.8 123.7 124.7 127.2 129.7 131.5 132.2 131.8 129.6 125.3 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 16 18 17 12 9 9 13 19 26 29 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 12 16 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 17. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -6. -15. -27. -40. -51. -58. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 3. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 10. 3. -9. -21. -30. -36. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 120.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 11/12/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 144.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.94 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 111.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 25.2% 17.6% 14.5% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 14.5% 9.6% 7.8% 4.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 13.9% 9.1% 7.5% 1.5% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 11/12/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##