* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 08/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 38 45 57 61 69 72 73 72 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 38 45 57 61 69 59 66 64 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 35 38 42 40 49 54 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 10 8 11 2 10 2 3 2 5 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 0 0 0 -3 0 -4 0 -2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 69 88 91 101 94 114 95 174 330 246 146 281 304 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.7 28.9 27.3 27.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 156 153 150 152 156 160 153 134 131 125 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -52.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -50.0 -50.3 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 84 83 82 81 80 75 72 65 59 51 51 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 12 15 14 18 17 20 21 23 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 48 55 60 55 65 60 57 63 61 65 59 56 40 200 MB DIV 96 122 120 111 111 115 109 83 17 16 19 -27 2 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -5 -7 -4 0 -3 0 1 -4 0 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 307 325 322 313 332 292 234 201 93 -11 86 84 48 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.6 23.4 23.5 23.7 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.5 107.9 108.3 108.8 109.1 109.0 108.6 108.9 110.2 111.6 111.8 112.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 6 3 4 4 6 8 4 2 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 34 30 27 26 23 23 23 3 5 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 415 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 28. 31. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 5. 5. 10. 10. 14. 14. 16. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 32. 36. 44. 47. 48. 47. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.2 106.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 08/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.30 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.77 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 3.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.89 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.9% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 19.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 16.9% 28.2% 14.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 4.1% 24.0% Consensus: 0.2% 9.1% 5.5% 0.3% 0.1% 12.4% 17.1% 12.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 08/29/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##