* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 08/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 49 56 61 63 64 65 65 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 49 56 61 63 64 47 42 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 36 36 38 33 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 11 6 6 8 9 10 4 3 13 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 0 -1 1 -1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 71 79 94 129 188 155 106 114 83 306 307 297 312 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.0 28.3 29.1 30.0 31.0 31.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 163 161 154 142 147 156 166 172 173 115 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.0 -51.5 -50.9 -51.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.1 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 6 8 5 6 6 9 6 9 3 700-500 MB RH 84 84 81 79 78 71 68 71 71 66 56 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 10 11 14 15 16 15 15 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 36 26 26 39 45 75 68 69 26 64 23 18 11 200 MB DIV 83 86 100 96 81 116 94 96 64 45 13 -13 7 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 222 171 102 97 179 127 190 249 291 90 -37 50 99 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.8 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.9 21.4 20.7 20.5 22.4 24.5 26.2 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.4 105.8 106.4 107.4 109.4 110.9 110.5 108.5 106.8 107.2 109.8 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 9 4 8 11 11 12 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 32 33 31 17 8 11 25 27 49 43 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 8. 10. 9. 8. 11. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 24. 31. 36. 38. 39. 40. 40. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 105.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 08/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -1.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.4% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 19.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 23.9% 10.1% 7.1% 3.2% 24.8% 40.8% 20.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 13.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 3.1% 7.6% 8.3% Consensus: 0.8% 21.0% 10.0% 2.6% 1.2% 15.8% 22.5% 9.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 08/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##