* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 08/29/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 39 45 49 49 47 45 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 28 37 36 39 37 35 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 29 29 30 29 29 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 18 16 9 12 17 11 13 12 11 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 0 0 0 1 0 -2 1 -1 1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 59 63 54 41 27 275 249 232 154 128 97 307 278 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.2 29.7 27.5 28.0 28.8 30.3 31.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 158 160 163 168 163 138 143 152 169 172 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -51.3 -50.4 -50.8 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 10 5 9 4 7 5 8 6 9 700-500 MB RH 82 84 83 82 81 75 66 61 60 60 65 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 32 31 28 25 65 64 100 61 51 38 21 200 MB DIV 104 97 89 96 95 87 105 68 50 15 26 -8 0 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -7 -5 0 -1 0 3 2 0 0 -7 LAND (KM) 266 232 171 99 29 -30 67 -1 126 210 195 104 74 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.7 20.9 22.8 23.5 22.8 21.3 21.2 23.1 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.1 104.2 104.2 104.3 105.0 106.9 109.6 111.4 111.1 109.5 108.4 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 10 13 13 11 7 7 9 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 35 35 25 55 26 26 8 7 19 27 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 20. 24. 24. 22. 20. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 103.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 08/29/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -6.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 3.9% 10.4% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.8% Consensus: 0.0% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 6.6% 9.0% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 08/29/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##