* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 08/28/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 46 49 50 50 49 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 28 27 27 31 30 29 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 30 31 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 29 23 13 11 8 26 24 14 11 11 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 0 0 -1 0 2 0 1 -4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 63 59 61 51 31 290 264 246 209 188 162 223 303 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.5 31.5 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 156 158 161 165 171 171 156 153 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 7 8 7 7 6 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 83 83 84 82 79 72 62 55 53 55 58 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 38 33 18 22 29 37 47 54 62 44 31 16 200 MB DIV 93 97 81 64 74 78 66 89 81 46 35 3 -2 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -6 -3 -5 -3 10 1 6 7 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 278 226 153 80 0 -147 -101 -59 89 27 185 279 265 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.4 20.4 22.5 23.9 24.2 22.8 21.4 20.8 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.2 103.3 103.4 103.5 103.9 104.7 106.3 108.6 109.7 109.2 108.5 108.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 46 41 37 33 44 51 40 50 30 20 21 28 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -13. -14. -12. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 21. 24. 25. 25. 24. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 103.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 08/28/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -13.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 3.7% 8.3% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 6.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 08/28/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##