* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 08/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 36 40 50 61 71 78 80 79 79 76 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 36 40 50 61 71 78 80 79 73 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 44 50 53 55 54 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 21 15 6 10 3 5 15 2 3 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -4 2 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 67 78 81 84 83 114 173 114 47 141 325 248 296 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.5 28.2 28.4 29.5 29.4 25.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 160 161 159 150 143 149 161 160 122 130 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.3 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 -50.1 -50.7 -49.7 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 10 6 6 6 9 5 7 5 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 82 81 76 74 73 72 65 51 47 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 10 10 10 12 14 18 22 23 22 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 33 40 44 41 28 64 76 82 48 70 42 64 51 200 MB DIV 66 91 99 86 60 68 81 112 99 57 17 19 51 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 -6 0 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 223 177 142 122 107 205 288 382 350 105 19 120 250 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.9 20.3 19.8 19.8 22.4 24.4 24.0 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.6 104.2 104.8 105.7 107.6 110.0 111.6 110.6 109.0 110.5 113.1 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 3 10 14 13 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 36 36 37 32 33 19 5 12 24 21 0 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 21. 20. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 15. 25. 36. 46. 53. 55. 54. 54. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 103.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 08/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.03 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -8.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.91 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.1% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 9.6% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 16.0% 35.4% 28.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 4.9% 8.4% Consensus: 0.1% 10.0% 4.9% 0.4% 0.2% 10.8% 19.1% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 08/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##