* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 08/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 37 40 50 57 68 73 79 77 76 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 37 40 50 57 68 73 79 77 71 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 34 39 44 51 56 59 57 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 23 19 13 4 8 2 12 7 4 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 0 -1 0 -4 0 -3 1 0 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 63 67 78 84 84 58 114 107 54 39 261 264 259 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.5 28.6 29.1 30.9 26.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 160 160 157 150 146 150 159 173 126 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 8 7 5 6 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 84 84 84 83 81 78 75 75 74 70 53 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 8 10 10 12 12 18 20 25 22 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 46 37 53 39 51 72 91 85 47 55 51 64 57 200 MB DIV 70 63 91 103 95 49 100 91 134 111 18 15 37 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 -1 -4 -6 -2 0 -7 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 223 197 188 186 175 293 378 478 454 225 70 52 268 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.2 19.2 19.5 18.9 18.9 21.2 24.3 24.5 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.8 104.5 105.3 106.1 108.2 110.2 111.7 110.9 108.8 109.4 112.7 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 3 9 19 14 13 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 35 35 37 35 35 17 10 12 25 29 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -2. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 17. 20. 25. 20. 21. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 12. 15. 25. 32. 43. 49. 54. 52. 51. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 103.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 08/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -6.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 6.4% 10.9% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.3% 2.3% Consensus: 0.0% 6.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 7.5% 9.9% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 08/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##