* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 07/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 9 7 12 22 24 25 26 34 40 44 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -3 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 347 329 326 286 254 267 260 258 260 260 264 259 253 SST (C) 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.9 24.5 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 108 105 101 99 103 109 112 113 115 117 120 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 57 54 49 46 42 39 37 36 37 36 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 -1 3 3 0 7 30 28 33 25 33 26 200 MB DIV 20 15 9 5 -8 -3 6 3 7 -5 -15 -14 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -8 -5 3 1 1 0 0 2 3 5 6 LAND (KM) 1052 1140 1273 1389 1536 1854 2170 1883 1616 1373 1131 898 657 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.5 18.1 17.7 17.4 17.0 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 121.1 123.0 124.9 126.9 130.6 134.0 136.9 139.5 141.9 144.3 146.7 149.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 17 18 18 18 17 15 13 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -10. -16. -22. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -10. -16. -22. -28. -34. -40. -44. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.2 119.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 175.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.8% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##