* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 07/05/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 35 34 31 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 35 34 31 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 30 28 25 23 22 21 20 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 14 11 7 8 11 11 11 11 10 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 1 1 -3 -4 -1 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 336 334 335 330 309 297 260 278 271 278 272 288 278 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.3 24.2 24.4 25.2 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 121 116 113 108 106 108 115 120 124 129 127 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 66 62 58 56 51 48 49 48 50 49 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 9 8 10 16 25 21 22 31 29 34 33 200 MB DIV 26 26 30 18 15 5 -8 2 6 4 3 -6 -7 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -7 -5 0 -6 2 -5 1 -2 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 849 912 989 1082 1213 1497 1768 2039 2260 2089 1914 1722 1493 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.4 18.1 17.3 16.7 16.0 15.6 15.2 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 116.4 118.2 120.0 121.9 125.5 128.7 131.3 133.6 135.4 137.2 139.2 141.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 18 18 18 17 14 12 10 9 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 114.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/05/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 156.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 7.1% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/05/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##