* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 07/04/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 33 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 33 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 30 26 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 14 10 11 17 24 27 33 34 33 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 3 2 -3 -1 -4 -1 -1 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 329 326 330 332 324 271 245 255 261 256 248 242 246 SST (C) 27.0 26.2 25.3 24.4 24.0 23.2 22.7 22.3 22.6 22.4 22.3 21.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 128 119 110 106 97 91 87 89 86 84 76 72 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 66 60 57 53 47 42 35 32 28 28 25 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 -2 0 6 23 4 6 -21 -50 -94 -121 -133 200 MB DIV 54 26 30 30 33 -4 -16 -3 13 -8 0 -18 -18 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -8 -8 -3 -2 3 12 14 25 18 8 -10 LAND (KM) 780 779 853 915 1031 1259 1505 1720 1800 1807 1739 1585 1531 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.4 21.2 22.3 23.5 25.3 27.1 28.6 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.9 116.7 118.6 120.6 124.4 128.0 131.0 133.8 135.7 136.3 136.2 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 19 20 20 18 16 14 14 10 9 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -15. -22. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -29. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 113.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/04/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/04/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##