* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 07/04/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 30 34 35 34 33 29 26 22 19 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 30 34 35 34 33 29 26 22 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 21 21 20 19 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 12 14 7 3 7 10 10 14 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 17 1 350 344 342 341 333 258 241 260 258 266 264 SST (C) 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.5 25.0 25.6 26.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 140 139 136 121 115 111 109 114 119 123 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 70 67 60 56 53 52 52 55 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 11 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -19 -7 -2 3 4 20 20 34 29 34 22 31 200 MB DIV 54 50 53 39 32 14 19 -3 15 19 19 15 16 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -6 -9 -6 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 0 LAND (KM) 930 943 942 959 1020 1160 1402 1641 1908 2181 2183 2031 1838 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.4 17.7 17.8 17.4 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.0 114.2 115.5 117.0 120.2 123.5 126.8 129.8 132.5 134.5 136.1 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 15 15 16 16 15 14 12 9 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 10 6 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 10. 9. 8. 4. 1. -3. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 112.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/04/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 85.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.6% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.5% 3.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/04/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##