* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 07/04/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 40 39 37 34 30 27 25 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 40 39 37 34 30 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 11 10 10 3 7 10 11 12 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 24 23 359 338 335 337 295 258 225 235 244 255 258 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.3 26.1 25.2 24.8 24.4 24.5 25.2 25.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 143 139 139 127 118 113 109 109 115 121 126 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 71 69 64 58 54 51 51 49 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 8 8 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -29 -27 -11 -5 1 13 17 34 39 38 34 28 200 MB DIV 44 52 53 42 33 18 34 24 17 22 28 17 12 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -4 -4 -5 0 -1 0 -1 2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 884 915 932 937 965 1101 1284 1554 1797 2071 2208 2029 1878 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.9 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.2 16.7 15.9 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.9 113.0 114.3 115.6 118.7 122.0 125.5 128.7 131.6 134.1 136.0 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 13 14 16 17 16 15 14 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 21 10 7 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 15. 14. 12. 9. 5. 2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 111.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/04/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.39 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.14 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.9% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.4% 1.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 5.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 3.4% 4.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/04/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##