* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 07/03/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 39 42 42 40 37 33 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 39 42 42 40 37 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 25 24 23 22 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 8 10 10 7 3 5 9 12 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -5 -4 -6 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 30 35 31 360 335 336 340 300 219 210 222 231 258 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.1 25.7 25.1 24.5 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 143 139 137 122 117 110 105 110 116 123 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 73 70 65 60 56 51 49 46 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -37 -29 -29 -17 0 7 21 21 42 30 41 35 200 MB DIV 28 34 35 45 43 28 24 31 27 8 12 6 7 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 0 0 0 2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 851 861 891 915 928 1013 1163 1377 1634 1897 2183 2011 1770 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.4 17.1 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.6 17.1 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.8 111.7 112.8 114.1 116.8 119.9 123.2 126.8 130.1 133.2 135.9 138.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 17 15 14 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 32 21 10 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 17. 15. 12. 8. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 110.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/03/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.18 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 68.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 1.8% 2.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.4% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 4.1% 4.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/03/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##