* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 07/03/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 45 50 53 55 53 50 45 39 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 45 50 53 55 53 50 45 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 34 34 34 33 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 13 13 12 8 9 7 2 3 11 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 19 31 38 43 47 358 339 359 293 244 241 247 228 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.2 26.6 25.4 25.0 24.8 24.7 25.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 152 149 137 131 120 116 114 112 116 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 77 77 73 66 61 56 53 53 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -40 -32 -36 -30 -12 -6 11 16 39 53 36 41 200 MB DIV 57 37 38 47 53 52 28 26 13 39 43 24 21 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -3 -2 -3 -1 -4 -5 -2 0 -2 0 2 LAND (KM) 857 859 848 831 853 950 1009 1186 1413 1710 1981 2297 1979 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.9 15.8 16.3 16.6 16.6 16.4 16.0 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.0 108.9 109.7 110.7 113.2 116.0 119.2 122.7 126.4 129.8 133.3 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 11 11 12 13 15 17 17 17 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 40 46 43 37 33 10 14 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 28. 25. 20. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 107.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/03/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.37 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 13.3% 5.0% 3.6% 1.9% 11.2% 20.3% 8.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 10.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 2.4% 0.3% Consensus: 0.9% 14.3% 6.9% 1.3% 0.7% 9.4% 12.4% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/03/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##