* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 07/03/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 44 49 54 54 55 52 48 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 44 49 54 54 55 52 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 25 25 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 10 10 6 6 5 1 1 6 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 21 17 25 27 37 23 346 357 19 37 184 223 229 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.5 27.0 26.1 25.4 25.4 25.1 25.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 153 152 150 140 135 127 120 120 116 117 121 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 78 76 75 68 64 59 54 55 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -44 -39 -32 -31 -20 -8 -2 9 22 38 35 28 200 MB DIV 36 41 35 33 50 49 37 36 37 26 36 41 35 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -3 -4 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 820 836 837 836 869 985 1044 1220 1405 1671 1942 2225 2133 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.1 15.9 15.5 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.6 108.5 109.5 110.6 113.0 115.7 118.7 122.0 125.4 128.8 132.0 135.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 12 12 13 14 16 16 16 16 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 36 42 44 39 38 14 17 11 2 1 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 24. 29. 34. 34. 35. 32. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 106.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/03/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 38.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 14.7% 5.5% 4.3% 2.1% 18.0% 32.1% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 2.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.8% 6.8% 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 6.3% 11.4% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/03/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##