* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942017 07/02/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 34 40 44 46 45 44 42 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 34 40 44 46 45 44 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 23 22 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 13 12 10 6 6 3 5 6 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 0 -4 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 45 42 28 36 48 46 10 348 332 211 186 207 222 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 27.8 26.9 26.7 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 151 143 134 132 120 118 117 115 120 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 78 77 74 70 66 61 57 53 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -35 -38 -35 -26 -24 -11 -5 3 21 33 32 33 200 MB DIV 34 40 44 38 37 61 31 30 27 21 33 43 36 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -6 -6 -3 -5 -2 -4 0 1 2 5 3 LAND (KM) 799 806 810 818 820 924 992 1108 1286 1506 1780 2050 2300 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.5 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.1 15.8 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.9 107.8 108.7 109.8 112.0 114.6 117.2 120.2 123.4 126.8 130.1 133.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 44 41 35 21 11 14 2 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 27. 31. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 25. 24. 22. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 106.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/02/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 34.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 8.4% 7.6% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 2.9% 2.7% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/02/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##