* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 42 41 35 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 42 41 35 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 36 34 30 26 20 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 7 12 15 22 27 35 32 32 25 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 1 4 8 4 3 2 1 6 5 5 1 SHEAR DIR 2 348 283 237 236 247 227 223 222 224 219 246 257 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.5 24.5 23.3 22.2 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 140 137 130 126 122 118 107 94 83 72 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 53 49 47 44 42 39 38 36 32 31 27 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 18 19 20 19 20 18 16 9 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 16 7 2 10 28 30 28 30 43 36 2 -11 -16 200 MB DIV 77 59 53 78 95 22 4 4 10 3 -11 -12 1 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 -1 0 4 8 16 11 9 7 1 LAND (KM) 1360 1325 1291 1243 1197 1102 1007 845 665 550 485 370 293 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 6 8 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 12 6 2 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -7. -13. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 6. 3. -6. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 12. 11. 5. -3. -17. -25. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 119.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.69 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.13 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.63 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.57 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 240.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.56 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 31.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.61 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 25.1% 16.9% 10.7% 0.0% 12.5% 11.6% Logistic: 3.4% 10.1% 12.3% 4.0% 2.1% 5.7% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 11.9% 9.7% 4.9% 0.7% 6.0% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##