* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 49 48 44 34 25 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 49 48 44 34 25 15 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 44 44 41 36 29 23 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 5 4 9 11 20 22 30 35 34 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 0 2 2 0 1 3 5 3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 23 11 342 327 246 251 218 227 211 217 221 231 233 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.9 24.6 23.5 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 147 145 141 136 132 129 125 122 108 96 88 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 52 49 46 46 44 43 41 35 30 27 27 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 16 16 18 18 18 16 13 10 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 4 0 0 12 9 17 18 33 36 9 -12 200 MB DIV 58 71 64 54 71 52 13 -9 -1 -3 -21 0 -30 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 3 2 8 6 10 3 LAND (KM) 1423 1391 1350 1309 1269 1194 1100 991 850 708 601 552 542 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 7 8 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 16 14 11 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -5. -10. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. -4. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 19. 18. 14. 4. -5. -15. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 119.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.74 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.63 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.51 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 221.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.59 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.54 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.95 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 28.7% 19.9% 13.3% 0.0% 16.4% 14.9% Logistic: 5.1% 15.8% 17.8% 5.7% 3.1% 15.6% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 5.2% 16.5% 13.1% 6.4% 1.1% 10.7% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##