* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942016 09/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 45 52 56 55 51 45 34 25 20 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 45 52 56 55 51 45 34 25 20 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 46 49 47 42 36 30 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 9 8 7 7 9 16 20 24 31 32 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -3 -1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 22 22 14 1 347 275 246 222 220 202 223 225 245 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.7 24.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 149 147 144 138 134 130 125 119 108 101 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 52 50 49 47 44 39 35 32 28 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 18 19 19 17 16 12 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 15 2 -3 5 7 14 15 28 36 25 8 200 MB DIV 57 67 78 72 69 79 22 -8 0 25 -9 -17 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 4 5 7 12 10 11 LAND (KM) 1520 1486 1453 1416 1378 1296 1171 1055 906 766 648 644 717 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 18 17 13 6 6 6 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. -2. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 22. 26. 25. 21. 15. 4. -5. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 119.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.54 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 193.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 27.0% 18.6% 12.5% 0.0% 17.4% 15.9% Logistic: 5.6% 10.5% 12.6% 2.9% 1.5% 17.4% 10.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.4% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% Consensus: 5.0% 15.3% 11.2% 5.3% 0.5% 11.7% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##